Judul : Barclays strategist: You can expect a major department store to fail in the next 18 months beritamalay3.blogspot.com
link : Barclays strategist: You can expect a major department store to fail in the next 18 months beritamalay3.blogspot.com
Barclays strategist: You can expect a major department store to fail in the next 18 months beritamalay3.blogspot.com
Barclays strategist Ryan Preclaw explains some of his recent research on how much right-sizing needs to be done in traditional retail. Preclaw expects to see a major department fail in the next 18 months and discusses what the future of retail will look like. Following is a transcript of the video.
Blodget: There are some segments of retail that are doing well, some store chains and, and others that are getting hammered. So talk about that — what’s working and what really isn’t?
Preclaw: Look, I think the part that’s really not working is the department stores. You know, I think that’s pretty clear. I think there’s lots of other pockets. You know, my suspicion is that there’s going to be, you know — whether it’s a specific concept or an approach that blends e-commerce and brick and mortar stores — there are going to be some folks out there who are very successful. But what you also see, is there’s a lot who are just, you know, in the wrong place, have the wrong product. It makes it very difficult to catch up. The thing that we looked as being sort of the most important driver of that is: Do you have the money to invest? And it could be invest in taking your big stores down to smaller stores, taking a small number of stores and turning into a lot of stores that are widely distributed, or in doing what some of the very big guys are doing now, where they are putting new technologies in their physical store footprints that allow them to do more and more things. But if you don’t have that money to spend, you’re starting from behind and you’re starting from behind the time and a lot of people are doing a lot of things to really improve.
Blodget: And you think among the department stores — without naming names — that one of them is likely to go bankrupt in the next 18 months?
Preclaw: I think it’s pretty easy to make a case that you could see a major department store fail in the next 18 months. Now, if that happened a lot of spider webs that go out from that. So, if they’re the anchor tenant in a mall, then it is very likely that that mall — if it starts to be under stress — maybe it fails. If that happens the stores that are in the middle of the mall, sort of your traditional apparel retailers will also start closing, you might have department stores at lose a few more units themselves. And so you could see that have some pretty significant impact just from one big failure.
Blodget: And you talked about how department — or not department stores — but retailers can compete with e-commerce by coming up with a dual solution where they have stores and e-commerce. How is that going in general? Is anybody doing that in a way that you feel they can hold off Amazon and others?
Preclaw: So, I’m not sure that anyone’s doing that yet. On the other hand, you know, I’m not sure that a lot of those e-commerce names are a really making a lot of money yet. And so if you think about it that way, there’s probably a lot of room for people to go out and innovate. And it seems very unlikely to me that everything is going to be sold over e-commerce. I know I still pop in the stores and buy lots of things. And so it’s just a question of what’s the right mix, what’s the right balance and how can people achieve that.
Blodget: And so go out 5 to 10 years what do you think that mix looks like? Because I have to say going back in the 1990’s as an analyst covering Amazon, we were sketching out trying to figure out how much of commerce is going to go online? 5% was catalogs at that point, so maybe you thought it’d be a little bigger than that. But now here we are, 20 years later, a lot more has gone on and it just seems to be now really impacting everything. So what do we look like in 5 years?
Preclaw: I certainly don’t think I have a good model for putting like a specific number around that. My best guess is that actually in the end it looks something very different than what it does today. Where the way people treat stores is that there’s going to be some big integrated number for your sales and some of that is going to be delivered online, some of it will be delivered to the store, some of it will be things that you walk into a store and pick up directly. But then rather than think about retail is like brick-and-mortar over here e-commerce over here, the sort of final solution is going to be some blend where it all goes into a big pot.
Read more stories on Business Insider, Malaysian edition of the world’s fastest-growing business and technology news website.
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