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The Bureau of Labor Statistics will at 8:30 a.m. ET release the monthly jobs report. 

Economists forecast that nonfarm payrolls grew by 182,000 in May, according to a Bloomberg survey. 

The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.4%, the lowest level in a decade. That’s the more popular, official rate, which is lower than the U6 unemployment rate that includes people who are working part time for economic reasons. That rate is higher, at 8.6%. 

Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. “In one of the greater recent puzzles in the labor market, over the past six months, average hourly earnings (AHE) have been growing at a slower rate than the previous six months,” Lewis Alexander, Nomura’s chief economist, said in a preview.  

Alexander forecasts another month of sluggish wage growth because of a calendar quirk: the survey week for the jobs report, which usually includes the 12th of the month, was different from the week of May 15, when many workers get paid.

Two industries to watch in this report are retail trade, amid a wave of department store closures, and leisure and hospitality, for signs that spending is strong into summer vacation season.  

More to come …

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